![]() ![]() The Redfin Estimate is updated daily for homes that are for sale, and weekly for those that are off the market. ![]() A Redfin Agent can provide a free, professional estimate based on your home’s unique characteristics, including renovations that may be missing from the MLS. When you're ready to sell, nothing beats the first-hand experience and local knowledge of a Redfin Agent. But the Redfin Estimate is just a starting point-it is not an appraisal or a substitute for the expert pricing advice of your real estate agent. We use MLS data on recently-sold homes to calculate your property's current market value, making ours the most accurate online home-value estimate for on-market homes. Redfin has complete and direct access to multiple listing services (MLSs), the databases that real estate agents use to list properties. The Redfin Estimate is highly accurate, with a median error rate of 2.18% for on-market homes. It certainly is much easier to make a model look far more predictive, if you get to backdate all your estimates.The Redfin Estimate is a calculation of the market value of an individual home. In light of the recent Zillow fiasco where they tried to flip houses, I wonder if they had a similar issue with fudging the historical numbers. In fact, in the 2 weeks since I received my Home Report email there has been a massive lift in the value estimates from $255k in the email to $264k on the owner dashboard. The estimates are still being heavily restated regularly. Update 2022, I've updated the charts based on the last 2 additional years of data since I originally posted this. But what is really surprising to me is just how much the estimates can very month to month in a stagnant market. Now that I think about it, it's not too surprising to me that they restate their numbers historically as they update their data models. But, this example has really highlighted to me how much these numbers can change over time on a whims notice. The values on Redfin can be useful, and I still use them frequently. The 2018's estimated values are all over the place with estimates ranging from $209k to $240k over a few months timespan. These values (gray lines) are plotted next to the most recent Redfin Estimate. Here is a chart with each email's data points plotted with the estimate from that month with a line that goes to the implied price based on the percentage change since last year or last month. None of those year-over-year or month-to-month changes was ever a negative, so I believe they must just omit the value if it isn't positive. Digging into the Details of the Change Since Last Year and Last MonthĪs I mentioned before, most of the emails contained an additional data point of change since last year or last month. The upward graph in the current price estimate does make me feel good, but it's really just fake. So it seems to me that their algorithm to pricing the estimates seems to trend towards painting a rosier picture of the market. An important fact to note is that the sale prices of comparable units in my building and neighborhood have been flat for this entire time duration. ![]() The 2+ year old estimates are showing a relatively large amount of difference. Looking at my property as an example, there are some trends with more recent results being more consistent with the point-in-time estimates. ![]() Here's a plot of the results of those emails versus what was live on Redfin when I wrote this article. A lot of the emails also include a value for the percent change from last year or last month. Lucky for us, we had signed up for Redfin's Home Reports a couple years ago which included a snapshot of the estimate at that moment, which is what I thought the graph originally represented. Emailed Redfin Estimate from Jan 2019 vs what showed up on the website for Jan 2019 ![]()
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